David,
According to a census published by the ICA in October of 1999, there were approximately 101,500 carwash units in the U.S. This included 8,500 full-service conveyors, 10,500 exterior-only conveyors, 32,500 self-service facilities, 46,800 roll-overs at gasoline sites and 3,200 hand carwashes.
In August 2006, Booze, Allen &
Hamilton, released a summary of findings for an independent study the firm conducted on the carwash equipment industry. According to BAH, overall growth (compound annual growth rate) in the U.S. carwash equipment market is 3%to 4%.
BAH estimated that equipment spending in 2005 was approximately $582 million; $102 mil on self-service; $158 mil on tunnel; and $322 mil on in-bays.
If you make some assumptions regarding the new/replacement ratio and the average cost of an equipment package, you could make some broad brush stroke estimates as to the growth rate of new carwash sites.
However, given what has occurred over the last several years, I would doubt that the carwash equipment market has been growing at a 4% clip.
Hope this helps,
Bob Roman
RJR Enterprises - Carwash Consultants