Any investment/trading going on this week?

[Greg Pack]

OK, I'll try and keep this non-political:

I think we have not seen the bottom of the market just yet. But assuming the economic summit produces something the market will like I think we're gonna see a helluva dead-cat bounce in the next few weeks.

Expecting a bounce Friday, I bought small quantities of GM, Ford, Chesapeake Energy, Regions Financial, and S&P Ultra Index (ticker SSO) on Thursday near the close. Friday I took a beating on most of my purchases except RF. I sold Chesapeake after hours Friday for a profit of about 2.00/share.

For longer term capital: muni bonds are on sale. If I can convince myself that the world is not going to come to an end I could buy into a fund such as IQI, Morgan Stanley Quality municipal Income and get a 10% tax-free dividend. Once the smoke clears from this past week's implosion I think retirees will be looking for options that pay higher rates than CDs but are still considered relatively safe and might find their way back into this fund and drive the price back up. Any thoughts on that? There are also some good rates on dividend paying preferred securities of utility companies right now driving yields up into the 8% range.

I'm anxiously nervous about what next couple of weeks brings. If I'm wrong I'll have to hitchhike to the ICA meeting in the Spring.

Any thoughts? What are you guys looking at?

(This is my disclaimer that I'm not a professional and couldn't make a living trading if I tried and might as well be betting on red or black on the roulette wheel in Vegas, where at least the drinks are free and cleavage is plentiful)

 

[wagsnwheels]

nothing but down

I think the markets are going to be extremely disappointed that the G7 didn't come up with some sort of plan. It wouldn't surprise me to see the indices down another 10% next week. I would look at put options on the indices or any commodity. As for GM, if they survive this downturn I will be amazed. I wouldn't buy any stock with a g or an m in the name. As for retirees, I would think that CD's are about as risky as they will want to be for several years.

As for a carwash, if I didn't own one, I wouldn't own one today for love or money. This economic downturn is going to hurt in ways people can't even fathom right now.

 

[pitzerwm]

I picked up a few preferreds that are paying 14% and a GM one that is paying 50%. GM will be good for at least a year no matter what. And its not a stretch that the gov. won't let them fail.

 

[Greg Pack]

wags n wheels, all common stock I'm holding is a short term trade. I will go short again after the pop.

Had some great shorts last month but took them off WAY too early. I had shorted AAPL, XL, and TOL. Made a few bucks then jumped ship. STUPID,STUPID,STUPID!

Bill, did you see the Chrysler/GM merger talks?

 

[Sequoia]

I took 3 positions this week after sitting on the sidelines for years. Overall, I'm down a little but I still like the positions.

Anyway, if it all blows up neither the stock nor the money will be worth anything.

 

[pitzerwm]

I'm containing my gambling for the casino, I only take as much as I want to lose that night.

 

[Greg Pack]

I took 3 positions this week after sitting on the sidelines for years. Overall, I'm down a little but I still like the positions.

Anyway, if it all blows up neither the stock nor the money will be worth anything.

Yes, if it all goes belly up things are bad. Just in case that happens, I'm sharpening up my fighting skills for thunderdome.

Bill, I'm gambling a bit too, but with comparatively little money. I know some of you guys have enough money in the market to buy a nice house and it has paid off. Not me. I've never felt that comfortable fully invested. Most of my cash stays stays liquid in bank money market accounts. These speculative plays won't make or break me, but sure makes the news interesting.

But I do think the stock market will go lower, it's just a matter as if we get that bounce. If wags n wheels is right, if we go down this week another 10% without a corrective bounce there will be a mass exodus out of the market.

 

[Patrick H. Crowe]

Dear cfcw:

When you suggest that a 10% drop will produce "a mass exodus from the market" I think you show a fundamental misunderstanding of the market. It is, kind sir, misleading. Here's why.

The market is based on transactions. These require both a buyer and a seller. I think you are suggesting by "mass exodus" that people will finally be prompted to sell. Of course each sale requires a buyer so the number of people in the market willk not change by much though it is difficult to tell whether it will be up or down.

On your point about what to buy: I beleive that the buy and hold folks will eventually be O. K.. I also beleive that as the market rapidly "bounces up and down" there are multiple opportunities to make money, most rather risky.

I've bought Apple October calls, probably to soon and too high, so be it. I'm looking at other calls. I'll be in and out on relatively small changes. I don't suggest this for the faint of heart and never with the rent, grocery or retirement mony but I do hear opportunity knocking.

Patrick H. Crowe

 

[Greg Pack]

Pat, I'm following prognostications of several technical analysts. Some people believe in Technical analysis , others think it is some form of voodoo. But many TAs agree that is we break long term support levels below 800 we will likely go significantly lower, perhaps as low as mid-high 400s where this great bull market started in the mid 90s.

From an anecdotal perspective. I've talked to more people who are thinking about yanking their money out of the markets right now. A hundred more points on the S&P and I think some will bail.

Just my opinion, but I think the bull market is over for a while. The last ten years of growth have been largely fueled by two different bubbles. The real estate bubble is gone and won't be returning soon. Where will the American people obtain the increase in wealth to continue to consume more than they did the previous years? However, I will say that I think you may see the markets increase due to stiff inflation. Dow 20,000 isn't so impressive if minimum wage is $15/hr.

Perhaps my thesis is wrong-only time will tell.

 

[Ben's Car Wash]

I just do see it. There is too much instability in the market now to gamble with it. If you have a steady employeement that matches your 402 or 403B then by all means keep contributing what you can afford because your basically at this point "buying low". But this doens't mean we are at the bottom. With the government injecting capital into the banks... that's a sing that things are BAD! The credit market is not easing up. I read that by Nov 1st the largest financier of new car loans/fdealer floor plans will no longer front cash to the North East car dealerships. This will create a near crash of car dealerships. They are at the end now with stock nearly the value of penny stocks (penny stocks 95% of the time never recover). ford and GM are almost extinct! I just can't believe it.... but wait until mid November-Dec and see what happens to them.

I would not go chasing them and I would leave heavy stock investing at this time to the VERY SEASONED professionals. Yes I continue to contribute weekly and my work matches... but I'm 45 years old and have plenty of time. I watched 6 years of gains wiped out in 4 days last week! 8.7 trillion dollars! One good day yesterday will not stabilize this market. We have years of the bear market to get through and a recession that will last a long time. Watch for job losses next, a poor Christmas season then more jobs cuts, instability in oil markets. By Summer things might stabilize as Congress gets a grip on how bad this really is and get serious about creating real jobs at a decient wage/earnings for Americans. Then invest! But we need a plan on job creation and infrastructure to spark new industry and renew these businesses. We need to retool GM & Ford quickly (in months, not years) or they will not make it. And for those who say "the government won't let GM fail", who the hell thought Leaman Bros (157 years), Wamu (117 year old) would fail? GM is only what 85 years old? Ford 90? When a company survived the Civil war, WWI, the great depression, WWII and 5-6 recessions but fails the mortgage crisis of 2008.... I'm worried!

 

[pitzerwm]

Today when I was entering my preferred purchases from Friday, I saw that they had increased by 50%, I decided to dump them and see if I can pick them up again in a few days.

 

[Greg Pack]

Alright Bill-Good score!

I wished I had kept Chesapeake but I was a a little shaken by the market Friday and that was the only stock with profit, so I sold it to make me feel better. Of course it went up another $6 but now it's back down not too far from what I paid for it.

Before the market opened I placed limit orders to sell most everything I had. GM and my ATT preferred went right away for nice gains. I had bought some IQI, it spiked on the bull run too, but I was a little too greedy. Sold half for about .85/share profit, the other half I sold this morning for a .02 loss.

Just sold regions for a nice gain, but it has behaved very well today, so I wished I had held on to it.

I still have Ford- is still floundering around

I've got SSO- It's my biggest holding right now and might be the biggest loser. I started to sell Tuesday morning but didn't. Now my SSO is considerably lower than my average price I bought in. (yes I have been averaging down I shouldn't have done that I know, I know) I haven't done the math but the current loss I would take if I sold right now would wipe out most of gains from all other stocks. I still think we have a shot at going higher over the next couple of days. I will hopefully bail on it by Friday.

 

[Greg Pack]

S&P down 90 today Ouch -that's gonna leave a mark!

 

[Ben's Car Wash]

S&P down 90 today Ouch -that's gonna leave a mark!

OOOHHHH look at Asia over night. Dam beige book got everyone spooked.

 

[Greg Pack]

Well, here we are- two weeks later and the S&P had it's lowest close yet.

All those stocks I bought two weeks ago are but a memory. I did OK- not great, but not bad either. My biggest mistake was trying to day trade RF based on the volatility of the share price in the first five minutes of trading I got caught on the wrong end of a big sell-off.

This past week I've had relatively good luck daytrading SDS. Thursday afternoon I bought and sold it several times over the course of an hour. I lucked in and bought some at 103.50 Friday afternoon. I sold one third of it at the close.. Now I'm anxiously awaiting to see if I'm gonna be underwater when the market opens Monday.

I think a big washout day is coming- perhaps this week, maybe next week. might be a good time to bottom fish and put in some low bids on stocks you've been wanting to buy. They might just get filled. I'm gonna put in bids for several stocks at 20% below Friday's close and see if I have any luck.