Pro Forma Projection Help

[TakingThePlunge]

Hi all - I am a new carwash investor who is preparing to build his first car wash. I was just introduced to this site and really appreciate all that I am learning from each of you.

I do, however, need some help with my financial projections. I am in the southeastern US and feel confident in the site I have selected -- high traffic, medium/low income area, etc. I have seen numerous car wash pro formas yet can't seem to find any consistency with the number of self serve washes and automatic washes per week or per month.

Does anyone know of a reliable formula for projecting # of washes/cycles for self service and automatic -- based on population and/or traffic counts?

(FYI -- I am planning to build 5 self-service bays with 1 automatic)

Any insight or thoughts would be appreciated. Thank you in advance for any help you can provide.

 

[pitzerwm]

IMO don't take the first numbers and slap a 3-4-5% gain each year, the odds are that it won't happen, and anyone looking at you projections that has a brain will know it isn't happening so they will ignore all of you research.

 

[Jimmy Buffett]

One of my objections to almost all of the pro formas that I saw are that they did not take competition into account at all. I don't think that there is anywhere left that doesn't have some level of competition and that has to be accounted for.
It's a really tough time to get into the cw business so do lots of homework.

 

[Waxman]

Maybe look at trade magazines and the ICA website.

I spent about 5-7 years on my own pro-formas and business plan for my carwash. Might seem a little long but I re-vamped them a few times and kept crunching numbers till they seemed to work.

You need a best case, worst case and hopeful average and go 3 years out.

The revenue figures in magazine surveys are down, FYI.

I used 3/10 of 1% daily traffic count for IBA wash count.

Now is definitely a tough time for many start-ups and a new carwash project is not exempt from the typical struggles of entrepreneurship.

 

[mac]

Well it's good to see someone still looking at opening a new business. Good luck with the proforma. The numbers that we used to use from the magazine surveys don't seem to apply during these times. Have you thought of making an offer on an existing one? Building a new one will take you a year and you'll have to go through the learning curve. With an existing wash, you will be cash flowing the same day you close. There are a LOT of existing wash owners who want to sell.