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Populatioin Needed to Support a Self Service Wash
- Thread starter rph9168
- Start date
robert roman
Bob Roman
Most guidance from equipment manufacturers suggests a minimum of 5,000 people living within a 3-mile radius or about 178 persons per square mile. Today, I would figure 6,000 or so would be needed.
Minimum daily traffic suggested is 5,000. If site has in-bay, minimum suggested is 12,500.
Minimum daily traffic suggested is 5,000. If site has in-bay, minimum suggested is 12,500.
I have no idea about a formula but shoo wee JohnBoy'd love to see a customer base like that ! I dont think a formula can give that answer.
There is a big difference in supporting debt and making money.
My first thoughts are how many bays, and what kinda money are you talkin about puttin into the deal. I dont think anyone can build a new self serve by itself in todays money and break even anywhere in America. Having said that, there are foreclosures and bank REO's all over the place. If you can pick up one of those for pennies on the dollar and throw a little money at the previous owners mistakes you might have a chance. I dang sure wouldn't spend my retirement on it.
I've got 5 ss bays and an automatic. Its a modest deal but I do try to keep it up and make improvements every year. I'm in a farming town of 800 people waaaay out in nowhere. 20 miles to the nearest real civilization. Built in 1983. We do ok and I make my living with it. I'll never be Donald Trump but I aint never plannin on runnin for President so I guess it dont matter.
I guess I shoulda stopped with I dont know the formula but I'm bored on Friday nite from a long day at the carwash. I like this forum. It helps me alot.
There is a big difference in supporting debt and making money.
My first thoughts are how many bays, and what kinda money are you talkin about puttin into the deal. I dont think anyone can build a new self serve by itself in todays money and break even anywhere in America. Having said that, there are foreclosures and bank REO's all over the place. If you can pick up one of those for pennies on the dollar and throw a little money at the previous owners mistakes you might have a chance. I dang sure wouldn't spend my retirement on it.
I've got 5 ss bays and an automatic. Its a modest deal but I do try to keep it up and make improvements every year. I'm in a farming town of 800 people waaaay out in nowhere. 20 miles to the nearest real civilization. Built in 1983. We do ok and I make my living with it. I'll never be Donald Trump but I aint never plannin on runnin for President so I guess it dont matter.
I guess I shoulda stopped with I dont know the formula but I'm bored on Friday nite from a long day at the carwash. I like this forum. It helps me alot.
rph9168
Carwashguy
I tend to agree. I have seen many formulas but none that I think could predict success accurately. There are a lot of determining factors beside population figures and to some extent traffic count/speed and demographics. How well a site is maintained, quality of the wash pricing and performance as well as the way customers are treated are extremely important. I have seen many "can't miss" sites struggle and ones that were "questionable" that did pretty well. It is definitely not an exact science by any means.
robert roman
Bob Roman
I’ve been estimating start-up volumes for over 15 years including carwash, convenience store, gasoline, quick lube, fast food and many other types of small businesses.
Guidance such as population density or capture rate are rule of thumb useful for making sanity test, not concept or feasibility study or business plan.
Performance of stores in rural areas is more difficult to judge because conditions are much less similar than urban or suburban areas where the most of the fleet is located.
The self-service that would make the most sense today, except in rural areas, would be one that focused more on automatic car washing and much less on wands.
Guidance such as population density or capture rate are rule of thumb useful for making sanity test, not concept or feasibility study or business plan.
Performance of stores in rural areas is more difficult to judge because conditions are much less similar than urban or suburban areas where the most of the fleet is located.
The self-service that would make the most sense today, except in rural areas, would be one that focused more on automatic car washing and much less on wands.
rph9168
Carwashguy
I think part of the issue is who is doing the estimations or pro formas. Seldom when someone has something to gain by building a distributor or manufacture does one is the result that the wash is questionable or should not be built. As Mark Twain once said "Statistics are liars and liars use statistics". While many estimates may attempt to be as accurate as possible as I previously stated their are many factors to consider beside the traditional ones that are easily calculated or put into a formula.
When one is considering building any type of wash it is important to use some common/business sense and it there is any doubt seek a second unbiased opinion. There have been several occasions when I recommended that either a wash not be built or raised serious questions about building where the distributor became rather upset. Unfortunately I most remember those that went ahead and failed more than those that made it successfully despite my recommendations. As I said before, it is not an exact science but it is also one that can be manipulated easily for personal gain. The old saying "buyer beware" definitely comes into play.
When one is considering building any type of wash it is important to use some common/business sense and it there is any doubt seek a second unbiased opinion. There have been several occasions when I recommended that either a wash not be built or raised serious questions about building where the distributor became rather upset. Unfortunately I most remember those that went ahead and failed more than those that made it successfully despite my recommendations. As I said before, it is not an exact science but it is also one that can be manipulated easily for personal gain. The old saying "buyer beware" definitely comes into play.
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